a scenario engine, not a promise.
Calibrated on the real baseline: 688 followers, 8 posts (read live 18 Oct 2026, 04:58 CEST). Every input is a slider because every input is uncertain. simulated
Defaults are illustrative, chosen at the industry-typical conservative low end. Organic path: saves convert to follows at the slider rate (context, not a model input: 1 save ≈ 30 impressions of save-intent reach). ROAS stays undefined until a revenue proxy exists.
Calibration confidence: low, by design. The baseline is real (688 followers, 8 posts, insights live since 18 Oct). The rates are illustrative ranges, not measurements - the account has one day of insights. As saves/reach land per post, the save→follower rate and saves-per-post defaults get replaced by measured values, weekly, and this page restates them. The model stays parametric: with a near-zero data history, a fitted model (MMM-style) would invent precision we do not have.
Decision it informs: whether paid growth is ever worth it, and at what budget - answered weekly with fresher data.